Navigating the Ebb and Flow of Mortgage Refinance Rates

By Caleb Mitchell May 28, 2025

Investigating the state-wise fluctuation of 30-year mortgage refinance rates and understanding the factors influencing these dynamics.

States with the lowest 30-year mortgage refinance rates as of the most recent Thursday were California, Florida, New York, Tennessee, Connecticut, Washington, North Carolina, and New Jersey-falling within a range between 7.14% and 7.28%. Whereas, Hawaii, West Virginia, Alaska, Kansas, Missouri, and South Dakota observed higher refi averages between 7.38% and 7.44%.

The rates differ between states, fueled by lender operating areas, credit score variations, average loan size, regulations, and individual risk management strategies executed by lenders. In light of this diversity, it is prudent to explore various lenders continuously to identify your ideal mortgage option.

As an example of these fluctuating rates, the 30-year refinance mortgages experienced a 2-points increase on Thursday, leading to an average rate of 7.32% - the peak since July 30, 2024. Three months earlier, 30-year refinance rates registered a 6.71% average-the lowest of 2025-with rates yet again dipping to a two-year low of 6.01% in September.

Advertised online "teaser rates" seldom align directly with the averages due to their favoring the most appealing scenarios against accurately reflecting the average rates. These rates lean on various factors including, but not limited to, credit score, income, and thereby, they can deviate from the published averages.

Furthermore, mortgage rates are the result of many factors, including macroeconomic conditions and industry specifics. For instance, much of 2021 experienced the Federal Reserve's billions in bond purchases to alleviate pandemic-related economic strain, a significant influencing factor in mortgage rates. However, the gradual cessation of these purchases between November 2021 and March 2022, along with increased federal funds rates to combat high inflation, have led to a considerable elevation in mortgage rates.

These changes do not, though, directly correlate with mortgage rates, which can move in opposite directions. Yet, the speed and scale of the Fed's 2022 and 2023 rate augmentations have indirectly led to significant increases in mortgage rates.

In September, the Fed made its first rate cut of 0.50 percentage points, following this with successive quarter-point deductions in November and December. However, with rate-hold announcements predicted for 2025, it's possible no further cuts will occur for several months.

In conclusion, one should take into account that national and state averages are provided with an LTV ratio of 80% and a credit score between 680–739. It's important to note that these rates are a fair representation of quotes from lenders, given varying borrower qualifications and potential differences from advertised teaser rates.

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